Modeling, based on discriminant analysis, the possibility of occurrence and features of the course of multiple sclerosis in Ukrainian women depending on the features of the structure and sizes of the body

Abstract

Considering the existence of different ways of the course of multiple sclerosis, the disability caused by this disease, modern medicine needs the creation of new, easy-to use and cheap methods to solve this issue. Promising in this case may be the use of clinical anthropometry, which is already successfully used to predict the forms of development and severity of various diseases of various human organ systems. The objective of the study was to construct and analyze discriminant models predicting the likelihood and characteristics of multiple sclerosis progression in young Ukrainian women, based on anthropometric and somatotypological parameters. A clinical laboratory and anthropo-somatotypological examination was conducted on 59 young Ukrainian women diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. Disability levels were assessed using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. The control group consisted of primary anthropometric and somatotypological data from 101 healthy Ukrainian women of the same age group (sourced from the database of the Scientific and Research Center of the National Pirogov Memorial Medical University, Vinnytsya). Discriminant models predicting the occurrence and progression of multiple sclerosis based on body anthroposomatotypological parameters were constructed using the licensed “Statistica 6.0”software. The analysis revealed significant discrimination between healthy individuals and the general multiple sclerosis patient group, as evidenced by the discriminant equations (Wilks’ Lambda=0.052, p<0.001). Key contributors to the discrimination models for distinguishing healthy women from those with multiple sclerosis included pelvic dimensions (37.50 %, contributing the most), body circumferences and head dimensions (25.0 % each), and the transverse lower thoracic diameter of the torso (12.5 %). Further analysis differentiated women with multiple sclerosis based on the severity of their symptoms mild, moderate, or moderately severe also demonstrated statistically significant differentiation (Wilks’ Lambda=0.349, p<0.001). The most influential factors for mild, moderate, or moderately severe patients groups in these models were distal epiphyseal widths of long tubular bones in the extremities (33.33 %, contributing the most), pelvic conjugate diameter, maximum head length, the ectomorphic component of somatotype according to Heath-Carter, and the skeletal mass component according to Matiegka (each contributing 16.67 %). These findings underscore the importance of anthropometric and somatotypological parameters in predicting multiple sclerosis occurrence and progression severity in young Ukrainian women.