Assessment of risk factors for a positive 13С-urea breath test in Ukrainian population based on a logistic regression analysis model

Abstract

Ukraine remains a country with a high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection. Our aim was to identify important risk factors for positive 13С-UBT as the most accurate diagnosis. Patients and Methods: The study was conducted from 2006 to 2019 on 972 men (mean age±SD -40.47±14.92) and 1,120 women (age 42.09±15.55) who either never received eradication therapy (1,280 persons) or already received one (control test – 814). The regression analysis was performed by using logistic model (enter method). Results: 56.7% of primary and 43.3% of control tests were HP-positive. The large number of positive control tests was explained by the passing of the study by individuals who were dissatisfied with the previous results. AUC of logistic model ROC-curve was 0.68 (95%CI 0.657 to 0.701) and percent of cases correctly classified was 64.84 (Table 1). We found a significantly smaller increase in HP-positive individuals with a large mass – Spearman’s coefficient of rank correlation = -0.326 (95%СІ -0.391 to -0.257). This could be a suspicion to offer them a larger dose of isotope-labeled urea. However, analysis proved that individuals with increased weight were more likely to have positive results, and these fears are redundant. Conclusions: We proved a consistent decrease in the prevalence rate of HP-infection in Ukraine (Vinnytsya region as an example). A fact that contradicts most previous studies is the reduced risk of HP-in-fection among Ukrainian men