Epidemiology and forecast of the prevalence of esophageal cancer in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

In this article the problems of the prevalence of esophageal cancer and the spatial distribution of mortality rates from this disease are considered using as examples the NUTS 2 regions in six countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Austria, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary). The rates of mortality from esophageal cancer are analyzed by statistical methods and by spatial econometrics. A study is carried out of the features of the spatial distribution of the rates of mortality from esophageal cancer. It allows us to determine more and less epidemiologically affected regions and to carry out more detailed studies on the link between the mortality rates from esophageal cancer and various factors, such as the environmental situation, socio-demographic characteristics of the population, culture and nature of nutrition, the general health status of thepopulation, the availability of resources and the level of healthcare in the region. By means of the multifactor regression model we forecast the rates of mortality from esophageal cancer, taking into account characteristics of the countries, the dynamics of the number of patients with diseases of the esophagus and the general time trend.